A political analyst and lecturer at the University of Ghana, Legon, Dr. Kobby Mensah, has stated categorically that the Vice President Dr Alhaji Mahamadu Bawumia has no solid foundation in the New Patriotic Party (NPP) that could make him to become the Presidential Candidate for the party after the exit of President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo- Addo.
According to him, Dr Bawumia hasn’t grown into the “party stalwart” that could keep taps on party agitation and ensure coherence.
The researcher pointed out that on the other hand, the Minister for Trade and Industry, Mr Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen, who he reckons as a formidable candidate for the flagbearer in the NPP has a consolidated constituency over the period of having contested three consecutive primaries of the party.
According to Dr Mensah, the other party stalwarts and their followers who have been in contests with Mr Kyerematen and President Akufo-Addo all these while, such as the Former Member of Parliament for Offinso North constituency, Dr Kofi Konadu Apraku, Member of Parliament for Essikado, Hon. Joe Ghartey amongst others will find it humiliating to accept Dr Bawumia leadership and that can destabilise the NPP.
He underscored that going into the flagbearership race, the contribution of the contestants to the party since it’s formation would be critical. According to him, the NPPis an establishment party and that the internal party campaign is fought on stewardship, loyalty and electability - based on your ability to mobilise a coalition of votes.
Dr Mensah explained that there has been a particular voting preference in Ghana and across the African continent that limits the winnability coefficient of young presidential aspirants during general elections.
He told the host of Good Evening Ghana, Mr. Paul Adom-Otchere, that Ghanaians like most African countries easily trust their votes with elderly candidates than younger ones who contest elections.
“You realize that the Ghanaian voter often goes for an elderly person, and not only that, almost all African country, you see a certain level of age. And I think a reason why President Mahama struggled was because of the age-factor. People associated young persons with a certain lifestyle” he noted.
The political analyst stressed that his argument are not based on any empirical research but on mere observations of voting preferences in Ghana and across Africa.
Dr. Mensah posited that the only factor that could alter his prediction is the pending primaries of the New Patriotic Party.
Albeit he believed his analogy could find prominence in the NPP's internal election, adding that "it's more of a contest between Alan and Dr Bawumia."
Dr. Kobby Mensah avers the NPP has an inherent leadership path that had remain typically traditional, which ascribes power to persons in an ordered sequence based on 'seniority' and consistency.
Although the President hinted to the Asantehene in Manhyia last week that Mr. Kyerematen and Hon. Afriyie Akoto, Minister of Agriculture would be contesting for the Presidential slot, so far, only two persons have declared their intention to contest the flagbearership. Hon. Joe Ghartey, former Minister for Railway Development, was the first to have announced his interest for the flagbearer-ship. Former Minister for Energy, Mr Boakye Agyarko had recently announced his interest too.
Dr Bawumia and Mr Alan Kyerematen are yet to publicly declare their intention but the rumours and secret campaign makes it obvious they will soon join the race when the party gives the green light for them to campaign.
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Please get it right here! There is no doubt about competence and the hard-working Alan. But he has a better contender, Bawumia, and his present position as a vice president, which to date, he has performed credibly well, gives him a hierarchy advantage over Alan. And you would agree with me, Dr. Bawumia is doing a great job; as a Vice President. That notwithstanding, the beauty of democracy maintains that confirmed with the nods of the electorates. Hence, my humble advice to the NPP is to present Bawumia/Alan ticket, and I bet that can set the 16-year term circle. Why am I suggesting that? By then, Ghana's beyond aid programs might have matured and started bearing appreciable fruits.
" I’m sorry to say this but we all can attest to how Mahama is desperate to come back. He is definitely going to use the tribal card . Mahama loosing against Alan can be very dangerous if he decides not to accept the results. Loosing against a fellow northerner and a Moslem man like Bawumia will make it very very difficult for Mahama to incite any tribal pronouncements that can jeopardise the peace that we are enjoying in Ghana despite the hardships. The npp can ignore this humble advise to their own peril" Kwaku, I think you lack basic wisdom.
Another waste of time so-called analysis from an armed chair ‘political scientist’. Tweaaaah!
Dr please spare Ghanaians a moments. Please refund you Research Allowances paid to you over the years. The literature in your analysis will not add up. You seemed to have been in deem slumber and outlived your usefulness as a Lecturer. By your own submission you admitted your "argument are not based on any empirical research but on mere observations of voting preferences in Ghana".
The biggest political mistake for the npp to make is not to elect Bawumia as its presidential candidate in 2024. This Vice President has joined this president four times to contest national election. I stand to be corrected, Rawlings ( blessed memory) was younger than Kufour, Mills (blessed memory) was younger than Akuffu Addo, ln 2012 election Mahama was younger than Akuffu Addo. Come again Dr, don’t try to throw dust into the eyes of the npp delegates. The election of Alan will revive Mahama’s campaign. I’m sorry to say this but we all can attest to how Mahama is desperate to come back. He is definitely going to use the tribal card . Mahama loosing against Alan can be very dangerous if he decides not to accept the results. Loosing against a fellow northerner and a Moslem man like Bawumia will make it very very difficult for Mahama to incite any tribal pronouncements that can jeopardise the peace that we are enjoying in Ghana despite the hardships. The npp can ignore this humble advise to their own peril.
Who gave these Al cake analysis? These problematical blind learners are always thinking backwards and unproductive in their actions.
The Bawumia and Alan Leadership, thus, Baweumia as President and Alan as his Vice can even break the 16-year term.
I think Dr. Bawumia has grown into the stalwarts of the NPP by the virtues of his position as a Vice President. The Vice President, Dr. Bawumia, has competently performed credibly very well. And above all, he has represented the President in his absence, brilliantly and commendably very well. The question is whether Dr. Bawumia has the marketable credentials to lead the party as its presidential candidate in the 2024 elections? The assumption that he can't keep the taps on the party agitations to ensure coherence is clearly, false. Then, his popularity to date in the party is phenomenal and is not just fallen from heaven. And I bet he and the party have the competence to select the party executives to maintain the coherence in the party. I do not believe Dr. Bawumia would lightly desert or exit the party for any misunderstanding and problems. Only to rescind after deliberations, advice, and rejoin the party to claim loyalty. Furthermore, the African population is very youthful, and it was high time that we responsively changed the leadership. And with Bawumia, Ghana is better poised to play a leading role.
Fake political don with voodoo analysis! What foundation does Allan have in the NPP? Dr. Bawumia was more instrumental in the 2016 and 2020 victories of the NPP than Allan. What is the percentage of Allan's contribution to the 2016 and 2020 NPP victories? Maybe 0.05 per cent. How many votes did he contribute to the victories? Very negligible! Moreso, Dr. Bawumia has been the first class Vice President of Ghana for five years running, and has over three more years to go, God willing. What other kind of foundation does the so-called political don want to see? He should continue engaging in desk and voodoo analysis and keep deceiving Allan about his chances. Allan will receive the biggest shock of his life.