IMF Ditches Mahama Over Moribund Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose policies the Mahama-led government is implementing religiously, has ditched the regime, and rather backed the opposition New Patriotic Party�s (NPP�s) position on the moribund Ghanaian economy. On Tuesday, the Economic Team of the NPP threw tantrums at the government for doing little to alleviate the general hardships in the West African country. A former Minister of Finance and Economic Planning under the erstwhile Kufuor administration, Mr. Yaw Osafo Maafo, said six months on, the economy was in tatters, and things were getting worse, with future growth prospects being lowered. He tasked the President to appoint more competent people to help him manage the ailing economy, while also restoring fiscal discipline in all departments of public sector. In addition, the former Finance Minister asked the government to reduce the appetite for borrowing from both domestic and foreign sources, and focus on plans to enhance revenue mobilisation in the country. Sharing some of the sentiments raised by the Mr. Osafo Maafo and his party, the IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), stated that global growth is projected to remain subdued at slightly above three percent in 2013, the same as in 2012. This is less than what was forecast in the April 2013 WEO, driven to a large extent by appreciably weaker domestic demand and slower growth in several key emerging market economies, as well as a more protracted recession in the euro area. Downside risks to global growth prospects, including Ghana, still dominate, and while old risks remain, new risks have emerged, including the possibility of a longer growth slowdown in emerging market economies, especially given risks of lower potential growth, slowing credit, and possibly tighter financial conditions, if the anticipated unwinding of monetary policy stimulus in the United States leads to sustained capital flow reversals. Many emerging market and developing economies like Ghana face a tradeoff between macroeconomic policies to support weak activity, and those to contain capital outflows. Macro-prudential and structural reforms can help make this tradeoff less stark, according to the Breton Wood institution. Global growth increased only slightly from an annualised rate of 2� percent in the second half of 2012, to 2� percent in the first quarter of 2013, instead of accelerating further, as expected at the time of the April 2013 WEO. The underperformance was due to three factors such as continuing growth disappointments in major emerging market economies, reflecting, to varying degrees, infrastructure bottlenecks and other capacity constraints, slower external demand growth, lower commodity prices, financial stability concerns, and, in some cases, weaker policy support. At 5 percent in 201, and about 5� percent in 2014, growth in emerging market and developing economies, including Ghana, is now expected to evolve at a more moderate pace, some � percentage points slower than in the April 2013 WEO. This embodies weaker prospects across all regions. In China, growth will average 7� percent in 2013-14, � and � percentage points lower in 2013 and 2014, respectively, than the April 2013 forecast. Forecasts for the remaining, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, which constitute (BRICS), have been revised down as well by � to � percentage points. The outlook for many commodity exporters (including those among the BRICS) has also deteriorated due to lower commodity prices. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa will be weaker, as some of its largest economies (Nigeria, South Africa) struggle with domestic problems and weaker external demand. Growth in some economies in the Middle East and North Africa remains weak, because of difficult political and economic transitions. In sum, global growth will recover from slightly above 3 percent in 2013, to 3� percent in 2014, some � percent weaker for both years than the April 2013 projections. Policies to generate strong growth Weaker growth prospects and new risks raise new challenges to global growth and employment, and global rebalancing. Policymakers everywhere need to increase efforts to ensure robust growth. The WEO noted: �Cyclical positions and vulnerabilities vary across emerging market and developing economies, but prospects of monetary policy normalisation in the United States, and a potential capital flow reversal have heightened some policy trade-offs.� Risks of lower-than-expected potential output in some economies, including Ghana, suggest that there may be less fiscal policy space than previously estimated. Monetary easing can be the first line of defense against downside risks, as inflation is generally expected to moderate in most economies, it indicated. However, real policy rates are low already, and capital outflows and price effects from exchange rate depreciation may also constrain further easing. With weaker growth prospects and potential legacy problems from a prolonged period of rapid credit growth, the policy framework must be ready to handle possible increases in financial stability risks. While macroeconomic policies can support these efforts, the main instruments should be regulatory oversight and macro-prudential policies. The above measures, the IMF says, need to be supported by structural reforms across all economies to lift global growth and support global rebalancing.