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An analysis of voting patterns in the Madina Constituency since it was created and new developments indicate that if the incumbent National Democratic Congress (NDC) Member of Parliament (MP), Alhaji Amadu Sorogho, is not changed, the NDC may lose the seat to the New Patriotic Party (NPP).

Movement Against Alhaji Amadu Sorogho, an offshoot of Madina NDC, is vigorously campaigning against the MP seeking re-election in 2016.

The NDC managed to keep the seat all this while because the NPP fielded weaker candidates in previous elections.
This time round, the NPP has elected a very potent candidate in the person of Alhaji Boniface Saddique Abubakar, former MP for Salaga, to contest the Madina seat.

Following the election of Alhaji Boniface Saddique Abubakar, it is the view of many, including NDC supporters, that he can snatch the seat from Alhaji Sorogho, who NDC grassroots supporters in the Madina Constituency believe has become unpopular.
Alhaji Sorogho is serving his third term as an MP, and all indications point to the fact that he is likely to contest the NDC primaries to represent the party in Parliament for the fourth time.

Grassroots supporters of the NDC in the Madina Constituency are rooting for human rights and public interest lawyer, Francis Xavier Sosu, to replace Alhaji Sorogho in order to revive the NDC in the constituency and improve the party’s fortunes in the 2016 general elections.

Some constituency executives who spoke to The Finder on condition of anonymity confirmed that grassroots supporters of the NDC have threatened to vote against the party if Alhaji Sorogho is retained as the parliamentary candidate for 2016.

The constituency executives said they would not be surprised if delegates elect a new candidate for Madina because the NPP primaries signals a wind of change which the NDC is likely to replicate when it comes to long-serving MPs.

Abdul Yussif Yakubu, President of Movement Against Sorogho, told The Finder that the performance of the MP was well below the expectation of electorates.
Yakubu, who is a founding member of Students for John Mahama, said if delegates should retain Alhaji Sorogho, the movement would galvanise the electorates to vote against the incumbent MP in the general elections in 2016.

He told The Finder that Alhaji Sorogho’s three terms in Parliament has not brought any meaningful development to Madina.

Voting patterns in Madina since 2004

Madina Constituency, which has about 90,000 voter population, has the potential to really determine who wins the presidential elections in 2016. There is, therefore, no doubt that a credible, marketable, new face can pull the trick for the ruling NDC.

For instance, in 2004, the NDC had 31,239 votes, representing 50.91%, whilst the NPP had 28,768, also representing 46.88%, in the presidential election.
In the parliamentary election, the NDC’s Alhaji Sorogho had 32,080 votes (50.20%) as against James Amoah of the NPP with 30,330 votes (47.40%).

In 2008 when the NDC came back to power, the President polled 34,571 (54.65%) whilst the NPP had 27,708 votes (43.80%).
Alhaji Sorogho of the NDC polled 30,717, representing 70.11%, while Abdulai Baba Zakaria of the NPP secured 13,098 votes, representing 29.89%.

In the year 2012, the dwindling popularity of the NDC’s Alhaji Sorogho became more evident.
In the presidential race, the NDC had a total of 45,626 votes (56.49%) against the NPP, who had 34,657 votes (42.91%), with a vote difference of 10,969 votes.

In the parliamentary election, however, the incumbent NDC MP, Alhaji Sorogho, had 41,441 votes, representing 52.07%, as against that of the NPP’s James Amoah, which was 34,845 votes, representing 43.78%. The NDC lost over 4,000 votes in the parliamentary elections.

Critical analysis of the above facts and statistics, coupled with the fact of growing voter apathy in the Madina Constituency, are accounting for reasons why the Madina Constituency needs a new face to help revive the party and secure higher votes for the President.

Alhaji Sorogho is said to be interested in contesting in the NDC primaries despite numerous complaints, despondency and dejection on the part of many electorates and party followers.

Currently, persons who have been branded as rooting for Lawyer Sosu have made allegations of intimidation and "clipping of wings".
In 2012, NDC parliamentary candidates were mostly new faces but they worked hard across board to increase the votes of the President.

The large votes the NDC obtained in NPP-dominated constituencies such as Tema West, Tema East, Efia/Kwesimintsim, Bosomtwe and Akwapim South gave the President enough votes to win the elections.
The issues of alleged intimidation and schemes are not good signs ahead of a healthy contest.

Whilst efforts to get the votes are being pursued, the NDC must ensure that parliamentary candidates who will give a boost to such efforts get the chance to represent.
In Madina, there is no doubt that the current MP’s, Alhaji Asorogho, popularity has waned and he has lost touch with the people and leaders of the Madina Constituency.