The UK based Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) says President John Mahama and his governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) will lose the 2016 general elections.
In a report published this month, the unit says its key intelligence analysis points to a victory for the New Patriotic Party’s presidential candidate, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo.
The Economist Intelligent Unit report says there is little time for President Mahama and the NDC to turn the economy around before the elections.
They however observe that the outcome of the elections is by no means a foregone conclusion, with the results likely to be close.
According to the Unit, the NPP will however need to work hard to attract votes in Central Region while maintaining internal unity.
The Unit says the politically motivated murder of the party’s Upper East Regional Chairman in May highlights a friction in the NPP.
They however say that the party was able to show a more united front during its subsequent primary elections when there was a notable shift to more youthful parliamentary candidates.
The report says the NDC will continue to enjoy strong support in the east and north of the country owing to historical and tribal allegiances.
Greater Accra Region, a historical swing state will be a key battle ground, the Unit noted, but says the NDC government’s mishandling of recent floods and subsequent clearing slums in the region could well cost it votes.
The Unit also predicts varying levels of political instability.
They noted that slower growth, electricity and fuel shortages, high inflation and currency depreciation will have a negative impact on living standards.
Accroding to Economist Intelligence Unit, growing number of protests against the NDC’s management of the country should be expected, particularly, in the capital and economic hub Accra -- disrupting business operations in the process.
They say in extreme cases, public anger can snowball into mass action, as seen in a number of Arab countries in recent years and, closer to home, in neighbouring Burkina Faso in 2014.
<<Print>>