Business Confidence Dips

Business and consumer confidence dipped in June primarily due to skepticism about the level and intensity of capital expenditures as well as weaker welfare expectation. This indicates that the Ghanaian economy is not strong despite positive sentiment expressed by government officials. A survey conducted by the Bank of Ghana (BoG) on businesses and consumers last month revealed softening sentiments on growth. Both the overall business confidence and consumer confidence dropped. Firms surveyed expected lower levels of sales, profits and employment opportunities while consumers complained about lower remuneration. In its latest review of the economy for the last three months of the year, Paa Kwesi Amissah Arthur, Governor of the Bank of Ghana (BoG), who also doubles as the Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), noted that the overall medium term outlook for growth remains positive. The current cash flow problems facing Greece, Portugal and to some extent Portugal and the delay of the US Congress in dealing with the country�s debt ceiling is also a concern to the country, the report emphasized. This can potential reduce foreign inflows and remittances significantly, while donor support will also be impacted. On government fiscal operations for April, May and June 2011, the budget deficit widened to GH�701.9 million compared to the programmed deficit of GH�645 million. Total public debt stock hit GH�20.1 billion at the end of May 2011, equivalent to 35.4 per cent of GDP. This comprises of domestic debt of GH�10 billion and external debt of $6.7 billion but excludes arrears of contractors and other service providers, debt of key institutions such as the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR), the Volta River Authority (VRA) and the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG), as well as delays in the transfer of statutory funds. With regard to the external sector, total merchandise exports improved by $2.1 billion to $5.3 billion, representing 66.2 percent growth over the same period in 2010. The robust growth in exports, the report said, were driven by oil, gold and cocoa beans. Exports of crude oil for the first five months of the year amounted to 8.6 million barrels valued at $954.6 million, while exports of gold and cocoa amounted to $2 billion and $1.4 billion respectively. The Ghana Cedi cumulatively depreciated by 2.1 percent against the U.S dollar in nominal terms during the first half of the year, compared to an appreciation of 0.1 percent for the same period in 2010. Meanwhile, the Policy Rate-the Prime Rate, the rate at which commercial banks borrow from the Central Bank has been reduced by 50 basis points. Most banks have already started cutting their base rates but lending rates continued to remain high. According to the Governor, favorably inflation outlook, coupled with the external front where gold and cocoa prices are holding firm, were the major factors that led to the reduction in the policy rate. Interest rates on the money market during the period continued to decline. The 91-day Treasury bill rate declined from 12.3 percent to 10.6 percent, while the 182-day Treasury bill rate declined from 12.7 percent to 11.4 percent during the period.